|Table of Contents|

Fuzzy expert prediction method for highway diseases in permafrost region(PDF)

《交通运输工程学报》[ISSN:1671-1637/CN:61-1369/U]

Issue:
2016年04期
Page:
112-121
Research Field:
道路与铁道工程
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Fuzzy expert prediction method for highway diseases in permafrost region
Author(s):
WANG Shuang-jie1 XIONG Li2 ZHANG Chi12 MU Ke1 JIN Long1
1. State Key Laboratory of Road Engineering Safety and Health in Cold and High-Altitude Regions, CCCC First Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., Xi’an 710075, Shaanxi, China; 2. Key Laboratory for Special Area Highway Engineering of Ministry of Education, Chang’an University, Xi’an 710064, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
road engineering Qinghai-Tibet Highway permafrost region highway disease prediction fuzzy expert system
PACS:
U418.6
DOI:
-
Abstract:
To predict the disease sections of newly-built highway in permafrost region and assist the decision-makers to carry on the reasonable design at design stage, a highway disease prediction method in permafrost region was proposed based on fuzzy expert system. The disease degree was used as analysis index, a road section of the Qinghai-Tibet Highway was selected as research object, and the influence factors of road disease were qualitative analyzed. The disease degrees of Qinghai-Tibet Highway were divided into 3 levels according to actual disease data. Combined with the years of disease data of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor of Qinghai-Tibet Highway, the fuzzy expert system for identifying disease sections in permafrost region was built. A variety of influence factors were used as input variables, and the disease degrees of the 10 equidistance road sections in permafrost region were calculated by using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of MATLAB. The calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree were compared and analyzed by using SPSS software. Analysis result shows that the road disease degree increases with the increase of annual average ground temperature, ice content and frozen-heave factor, the relevance between the calculated disease degree and the actual disease degree is 0.751, so, the application of fuzzy expert system in the prediction of highway diseases in permafrost region has a beneficial effect. 8 tabs, 19 figs, 27 refs.

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Last Update: 2016-08-30