|Table of Contents|

Prediction method of OD travel time based on driver’s route choice preference(PDF)

《交通运输工程学报》[ISSN:1671-1637/CN:61-1369/U]

Issue:
2016年02期
Page:
143-149
Research Field:
交通信息工程及控制
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Prediction method of OD travel time based on driver’s route choice preference
Author(s):
SUN Jian1; 2;  ZHANG Ying1; 2;  ZHANG Chun2
1. State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. Transportation Research Center, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China
Keywords:
prediction method of OD travel time;  route choice preference;  GIS;  map matching;  floating car data
PACS:
U491.1
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Based on about three million data of more than 3 000 floating cars in Shenzhen City of Guangzhou Province, geographic information system(GIS)technology was used as main tool, the representative Futian and Luohu Districts were used as study areas, and the expansion radii of different OD pairs were determined. Map matching was processed by using the unique number of floating car, the OD path and travel time of floating car were obtained according to the determined study area and expansion radius. The driver’s temporal and spatial preferences during route choice were determined, and the OD travel time prediction method based on the route choice preference was established. Using the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), the root mean square relative error(RMSRE), and the maximum relative error(MRE)as indicators, the travel time prediction methods based on the shortest route, the fastest route and the preference route were compared. Comparison result indicates that compared to the prediction method based on the shortest route, the values of MAPE, RMSRE, and MRE of proposed method decrease by 66.51%, 61.24%, and 61.47% respectively, compared to the prediction method based on the fastest route, the values of MAPE, RMSRE, and MRE of proposed method decrease by 63.64%, 59.70%, and 58.99% respectively, so the prediction precision of OD travel time is significantly improved by using the prediction method of OD travel time based on driver’s route choice preference. 3 tabs, 8 figs, 21 refs.

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Last Update: 2016-04-20