|Table of Contents|

Credit risk assessment of expressway listed company in China(PDF)

《交通运输工程学报》[ISSN:1671-1637/CN:61-1369/U]

Issue:
2013年03期
Page:
101-106
Research Field:
交通运输规划与管理
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Credit risk assessment of expressway listed company in China
Author(s):
ZHANG Sheng-zhong ZHANG Chun-na
School of Economics and Management, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China
Keywords:
traffic economic and management expressway listed company credit risk assessment KMV model
PACS:
F542
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to research the impact of financial crisis on the credit risks of expressway enterprises, 16 expressway listed companies in China were chose as samples, the half-year default distances of the companies from the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2012 were calculated by using KMV model, and the changing trends of credit risks were analyzed. Calculation result shows that default distance increases with an average growth rate of 20.11%, and the credit risk decreases gradually. The Spearman's correlation coefficients between the credit risk and China's half-year GDP growth rate and expressway sector index are -0.012 and -0.381 respectively, so the inherent correlations are not significant. The influence of the volatility of enterprise's market value on the level of credit risk is greater than the negative influence of the level of current liability. Expressway listed company in China still has high investment value. 3 tabs, 6 figs, 13 refs.

References:

[1] 陈海春.高速公路企业风险管理问题初探[J].经济研究导刊,2011(20):33-34. CHEN Hai-chun. Research on the risk management of express- way enterprises[J]. Economic Research Guide, 2011(20): 33-34.(in Chinese)
[2] 刘玉新,颜如意,李 虹.论高速公路上市公司财务风险与控制[J].交通财会,2011(12):20-30,34. LIU Yu-xin, YAN Ru-yi, LI Hong. Study on expressway listed companies' financial risk and control[J]. Transport Accounting, 2011(12): 20-30, 34.(in Chinese)
[3] 尹翠敏.高速公路经营企业财务风险预警模型研究[D].西安:长安大学,2011. YIN Cui-min. Study on the financial risk early warning model for expressway operation enterprise[D]. Xi'an: Chang'an University, 2011.(in Chinese)
[4] 滕振宇.低盈利高速公路公司财务风险分析及防范对策研究[J].交通财会,2012(4):42-46. TENG Zhen-yu. Study on the financial risk and precaution measures for low-profit expressway enterprises[J]. Transport Accounting, 2012(4): 42-46.(in Chinese)
[5] 张 玲,杨贞柿,陈 收.KMV模型在上市公司信用风险评价中的应用研究[J].系统工程,2004,22(11):84-89. ZHANG Ling, YANG Zhen-shi, CHEN Shou. An application of KMV model in credit risk evaluation of public companies[J]. Systems Engineering, 2004, 22(11): 84-89.(in Chinese)
[6] 鲁 炜,赵恒珩,方兆本,等.KMV模型在公司价值评估中的应用[J].管理科学,2003,16(3):30-33. LU Wei, ZHAO Heng-heng, FANG Zhao-ben, et al. KMV model applied in corporate asset valuation[J]. Management Sciences in China, 2003, 16(3): 30-33.(in Chinese)
[7] 夏红芳,马俊海.基于KMV模型的上市公司信用风险预测[J].预测,2008,27(6):39-43. XIA Hong-fang, MA Jun-hai. A forecast method of credit risk evaluation of listed companies based KMV model[J]. Forecasting, 2008, 27(6): 39-43.(in Chinese)
[8] 高扬敏,陈红伟,陈 刚.上市公司信用风险的KMV模型分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:社会科学版,2009,11(1):20-22. GAO Yang-min, CHEN Hong-wei, CHEN Gang. Empirical research on credit risk for China's listed companies using KMV model[J]. Journal of Liaoning Technical University: Social Science Edition, 2009, 11(1): 20-22.(in Chinese)
[9] 张树强.KMV模型在我国上市公司信用风险度量中的适用性研究[J].石家庄铁道大学学报:社会科学版,2012,6(2):21-26. ZHANG Shu-qiang. Applicability study of KMV model in credit risk measurement of listed companies in China[J]. Journal of Shijiazhuang Tiedao University: Social Science, 2012, 6(2): 21-26.(in Chinese)
[10] 郭立仑.我国上市公司信用风险度量——基于KMV模型[J].生产力研究,2012(1):76-77,81. GUO Li-lun. Credit risk measurement of listed companies in China based on KMV model[J]. Productivity Research, 2012(1): 76-77, 81.(in Chinese)
[11] ODECK J, KJERKREIT A. Evidence on users' attitudes towards road user charges—a cross-sectional survey of six Norwegian toll schemes[J]. Transport Policy, 2010, 17(6): 349-358.
[12] ALBALATE D, BEL G. Regulating concessions of toll motorways: an empirical study on fixed vs. variable term contracts[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2009, 43(2): 219-229.
[13] 杨 琦,杨云峰.高速公路资产管理体制改革研究[J].中国公路学报,2009,22(2):105-110. YANG Qi, YANG Yun-feng. Study of reform of expressway asset management system[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2009, 22(2): 105-110.(in Chinese)

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2013-07-30