|Table of Contents|

Temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency on expressway(PDF)

《交通运输工程学报》[ISSN:1671-1637/CN:61-1369/U]

Issue:
2012年02期
Page:
93-99
Research Field:
交通运输规划与管理
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency on expressway
Author(s):
MA Zhuang-lin1; SHAO Chun-fu2; HU Da-wei1; MA She-qiang3
1.School of Automobile,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710064,Shaanxi,China;2.MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China; 3.Department of Traffic Management Engineering,Chinese People’s Public Security University,Beijing 102623,China
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  traffic accident frequency;  temporal-spatial analysis model;  Poisson regression model;  negative binomial regression model;  zero-inflated Poisson regression model;  zero-inflated negative binomial regression model
PACS:
U491.31
DOI:
-
Abstract:
In order to analyze the relationships among traffic accident frequency and potential influencing factors such as time,road space structure and traffic running environment,nine independent variables were selected from the aspects of time and space,two kinds of section divided methods were adopted,which were fixed-length consistent segment and longitudinal grade consistent segment,and the hourly,weekly and monthly distribution models of traffic accident frequency were constructed.A typical accident-prone section was selected,and Poisson regression model,negative binomial regression model,zero-inflated Poisson regression model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model were used to fit hourly,weekly and monthly distribution models respectively.The best forms of three models were determined,and the temporal-spatial analysis model of traffic accident frequency was established based on the goodness of fit test.Analysis result shows that the fitting effect of negative binomial regression model is better for traffic accident hourly and monthly distribution models based on fixed-length consistent segment from the views of AIC and BIC,and the fitting effect of Poisson regression model is better for other models.The prediction errors of traffic accident hourly,weekly and monthly distribution model based on fixed-length consistent segment are less than those of longitudinal grade consistent segment.4 tabs,15 refs.

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Last Update: 2012-04-30