|Table of Contents|

Macroscopic econometrics model of traffic accident(PDF)

《交通运输工程学报》[ISSN:1671-1637/CN:61-1369/U]

Issue:
2012年02期
Page:
70-75
Research Field:
交通运输规划与管理
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Macroscopic econometrics model of traffic accident
Author(s):
WANG Jun-lei1; SUN Xiao-duan1; 2; HE Yu-long1; HOU Shu-zhan1
1.Transportation Research Center,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China; 2.School of Civil Engineering,University of Louisiana,Lafayette 70504,Louisiana,USA
Keywords:
traffic safety;  accident model;  panel data;  macroscopic estimation;  fixed effect;  random effect;  Hausman test
PACS:
U491.3;F224.0
DOI:
-
Abstract:
From the points of macroscopic factors such as economic development level,population number,vehicle ownership and road condition,the regularities of traffic accidents at home and abroad were analyzed.The relations among per capita GDP and vehicle ownership per 1 000 population,mortality per 10 000 vehicles,mortality per 100 000 population were studied.Based on macroscopic econometrics and Cobb-Douglas function,the panel data model of traffic accident was set up by using the historical data in seven countries.Fixed effect model and random effect model were used to estimate parameters respectively,Hausman test was carried out,and the macroscopic econometrics models of traffic accidents for the seven countries were set up.Calculation result shows that among the parameters of traffic accidents,mortality per 100 000 population is negative correlation with per capita GDP and per capita road length,mortality per 100 000 population is positive correlation with vehicle ownership per 1 000 population.Through Hausman test,chi-square distribution value is 3.91 when freedom is 3,the probability is 0.02 and less than the confidence level which is 0.05.Compared with the random effect model,all the confidence levels of variables for fixed effect model are less than 0.05,and the goodness of fit is better.So the fixed effect model is effective.3 tabs,6 figs,18 refs.

References:

[1] JIA Shou-zhen, LI Zhao-peng, CHEN Si-yuan, et al. The applicability discussion of the Smeed model[J]. Journal of Xi’an Highway University, 1998, 18(3): 276-279.
[2] ZHANG Wei-hua, LU Hua-pu. Analysis of vehicle delay of intersections with per-signals based on bus priority[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2005, 18(4): 78-82.
[3] LASSARRE S. Analysis of progress in road safety in ten European countries[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2001, 33(6): 743-751.
[4] KOPITS E, CROPPER M. Traffic fatalities and economic growth[R]. Washington DC: World Bank Group, 2003.
[5] AN Wu-mei. Macroscopical analysis and modeling in traffic safety[D]. Beijing: Beijing University of Technology, 2002.
[6] YE Xing-cheng. A systemic research on the road safety[D]. Wuhan: Wuhan University of Technology, 2005.
[7] LIU Yun-tong. A fuzzy-based model for macroscopic evaluation of road traffic safety[J]. China Journal of Highway and Transport, 1995, 8(S1): 169-175.
[8] PAGE Y. A statistical model to compare road mortality in OECD countries[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2001, 33(3): 371-385.
[9] XU Ting, SUN Xiao-duan, WANG Wei-li, et al. Highway accidents statistical analysis with panel data model[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology, 2010, 36(4): 495-499.
[10] State Statistical Bureau. China Statistical Yearbook in 2010[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2010.
[11] International Road Federation. World road statistics[D]. Washington DC: International Road Federation, 2009.
[12] Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association. World motor vehicle statistics in 2010[R]. Tokyo: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, 2011.
[13] World Bank Group. World development indicators[R]. Washington DC: World Bank Group, 2009.
[14] PAULOZZI L J, RYAN G W, ESPITIA-HARDEMAN V E, et al. Economic development’s effect on road transport-related mortality among different types of road users: a cross-sectional international study[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2007, 39(3): 606-617.
[15] SCUFFHAM P A, LANGLEY J D. A model of traffic crashes in New Zealand[J]. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2002, 34(5): 673-687.
[16] LI Ju-ping. Mechanism improvement for road traffic accidents indentification[J]. Journal of Chang’an University: Social Science Edition, 2009, 11(3): 26-29, 35.
[17] QIAO Xiang-ming, XU An, SHU Wei. Developing tendency fore cast of road traffic accident in China[J]. Journal of Chang’an University: Natural Science Edition, 2004, 24(6): 64-66.
[18] YANG Shao-wei, WANG Hai-jun, ZHANG Chi, et al. Reation between possible speed and traffic acciderct[J]. Journal of Chang’an University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 29(4): 34-38.

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2012-04-30